blog.payne.org

Well, I can report that Time Machine (the new back-up & restore utility for Mac OS X) works.

My 364 day old MacBook suffered a complete hard drive failure, only TWO hours after completing my first full backup.   I hustled to the Apple store right away, so I didn’t miss my one-year warranty window.  I had my MacBook back in 3 days, fully repaired.

I installed Leopard, and was given the option of restoring from a Time Machine backup.  It worked seamlessly — two hours later, I was back in business with a full restore.

Time Machine is a great example of simple & usable design.  Compare it to the backup utility on Windows — the simplicity is obvious, once you see it.

One of the problems in venture capital today is a fundamental impedance mismatch: fund sizes remain large, while capital requirements for many Internet/software deals are shrinking.

You don’t need much money anymore for many software ideas: the software stack is free, servers can be rented for $50-$100/month, and there’s cheap labor offshore. There are a lot of ideas that can be vetted for $100k to $1m.

At the same time, venture funds have grown and stayed big, driven in part by VC compensation. As I wrote in an earlier post: venture isn’t generating great returns these days, pushing VCs to make their money on fees. The larger the fund, the larger the fees.

The mismatch happens when you do the math: for a $200m fund with 4 partners, each partner needs to invest $50m. If each partner does 1-2 new deals/year, and the fund is committed over 3 years, then each investment has to be a $8-$16m commitment. (That doesn’t mean that Series A needs to be $8m, but it means that the total invested is in that range).

You can see where it is hard for many firms to do $1m investments — it’s just too small. And some of the most interesting stuff is happening “down there”!

We all know folks that made money on Bubble 1.0 that shouldn’t have and vice versa. The point: no matter what you do, sometimes you’re just lucky (or not).

Startups are calculated risks. Entrepreneurs work hard to manage all of the factors for success, but you can’t manage everything. Sometimes the low-probability, high-impact “perfect storm” happens and wipes things out. Or sometimes, the stars align in surprising ways and everything takes off.

The key, I think, is to be as relaxed as possible about it. Sometimes you do everything exactly right and it still doesn’t work out. The trouble starts when the anxiety of failure starts to creep in. When that happens, remember, it will all be OK: your spouse will still love you, and your friends will still call you back.

If you’re a regular blog reader, it’s easy to use your reader as a topic tracker.  You can do any Google News or Google Blog search and subscribe to the results as an RSS feed.  Some readers (such as BlogBridge) have the built-in ability to construct these “smart feeds”.

I use this method to track a long list of interest topics:  news about companies I’ve invested in, competitors, people I work with, etc.  It’s a very efficient way to cover a range of topics.

Today’s annoyance:  people that send me calendar invites with the description of “Lunch with Andy”.

I appreciate the convenience of eCalendaring, but having a week full of meetings with myself suggests that something is wrong.

I just learned another tool for fighting telemarketers.  You can ask for a written copy of their “do not call” policy, and they’re required by law to send it to you.  If they don’t, the law provides for “private action” — you can sue in state court for $500, and get 3x if you can argue they willfully ignored you.

We’re on the Federal Do Not Call list, but we still seem to get a surprising number of calls.  For a recent one, I asked the firm if they knew they were calling a DNC number, and the woman on the phone replied, “we don’t have a way to check that list, they only way we know if you’re on that list is if you call us and tell us.”

I am not making this up.

A while back, I wrote an essay on the pitfalls of Entrepreneur In Residence (EIR) arrangements for entrepreneurs. (And I’m now shamelessly recycling bits for blog fodder).

The essential point: EIR arrangements give quasi-exclusivity from the entrepreneur to the venture firm. Entrepreneurs need to make sure getting enough value back for that exclusivity.

We’ve got a pretty busy family with lots of moving parts:  three kids, cars, houses, doctors, parents, cats, etc.

We use a private Wiki to keep the collective family notes, and it’s working really well.  It’s accessible from anywhere (access controlled), and we put just about everything in it, including:  kid’s teacher’s name and email, account info & contacts, neighbor info and contacts, my son’s girlfriend’s cell phone #, frequent flyer numbers, notes we need to keep track of for next year’s tax return, the secret number at the power company you can call when the power gets flaky in our town, recipes, genealogy links, contact info for neighbors in NH, etc.

We avoid identifying account info (numbers, social security, birthdays, etc.) in the event it is compromised.  It’s searchable, and it works really well.  If you have a busy family, I strongly recommend it (even my non-tech wife uses it).

(I self-host, but for most folks, I would recommend PBwiki).