I read about the 40% drop in property values in Dubai, and it reminded me of a model I use to think about bubbles:
The slope of the rise is (negative) the slope of the fall.
The crazyness in the world (Dubai, hedge funds, etc.) is going to come down pretty fast & hard.
I can never be a politician; I’m way too good at verbal gaffes. In an attempt to be funny or witty, I frequently manage to blurt out something wildly inappropriate, embarrassing myself and everyone around me. But there’s no a tape or video recorder to memorialize the moment.
The Internet is a different story: every blog post you write, picture you post, Facebook wall you write on — it’s all there “forever”. As time goes on, we’re all sharing more, building a “comet tail” of our content behind us. And some have learned the hard way that drunken party pictures may not help your career.
As the “blogging generation” grows up and enters politics, it’s going to get really interesting. Even with an entirely professional on-line persona, you can have expressions and opinions from the past that you regret.
It’s starting with the Obama administration questionnaire — what about that blog post from a few years back?
There is some big news buried under Obama’s election win: the FCC has adopted rules allowing for unlicensed use of some TV spectrum.
This is HUGE news.
Spectrum is a finite resource, and it’s availability (or lack of) is a limiting factor in satisfying growing demand for new services. Most spectrum use requires a license, and incumbent license holders are quite adept at forming barriers against new competitors (good luck trying to start a new cellphone provider, for example). The FCC occasionally auctions off spectrum, but that policy is fundamentally flawed (IMHO) if the goal is maximum benefit to the people.
Historically, the most disruptive and pervasive applications have been unlicensed (e.g. Part 15), where, like the Internet, you don’t need someone’s permission to innovate. Think of CB radio, cordless phones, the Family Radio Service, remote control of all kinds, low power FM, wireless headsets, Bluetooth and Wifi.
More unlicensed spectrum means more good stuff.
Schools need to teach “how to find answers to questions on the Internet”, starting at a fairly early age (like middle-school).
We’ve shifted from “knowing it” as the key skill, to “being able to find it”. And I’m shocked at the range of ability (even with adults) on translating a given query to a Google search, refining the query, using Wikipedia where possible, and sifting through results to get a consensus answer.
I’m starting to teach my kids to be power researchers.
